Pages

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

A Bold Prediction

I've been seeing a lot of articles like this, usually from right-leaning folks, ever since Bin Laden was slabbed. And they're heartbreaking to read, embarrassing even.

You can smell the hope and desperation and it smells...sad.

Take this:
[I]t isn’t at all clear that killing Osama bin Laden is going to make any difference at all in the political battles to come over the budget, entitlements, the deficits, and the size and scope of government.
Now I'm not saying Bin Laden's death makes every issue a winner for Obama, but it seems pretty clear that Bin Laden's death makes every issue a must-win for the GOP.

Let me explain. Usually in presidential elections, the incumbent wins. There are exceptions, of course, but they're the exceptions. They're unlikely by definition, so it would be safe to assume that all things being equal, the incumbent wins.

So Obama already has the advantage. The GOP were already going to have to run an exceptional, near-perfect campaign to beat him.

If you've been observing politics as of late, you know that, well, that wasn't going to happen, what with the Tea Parties and the Birtherism and all the rest of the bullshit.

And now we have Bin Laden....

An ace in the hole? Nah. More like the drop in the bucket that finally tips it. Mark it down. Obama wins next year.

1 comment:

i am playing outside said...

Americans talk about elections WAY TOO MUCH. at least in Canada, one was able to pop up at any minute for the past several years [now of course, our country is screwed for 4, thanks to a new law and a new majority] ... but even for us, an election only lasts 6 weeks. choosing a party leader takes one day.